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Emerging Market - Research to Action

05.08.08 | Stuart | Permalink | Comments Off

A few years ago my brother gave me a book Investment Biker. Written by Jim Rogers a VC who took a motorcycle on a tour of the world and then from what he learned made investment decisions. I think we’d both like to follow that dream and ride around the world that way. I know from my many travels that each new place can fuel curiosity and insight.

I know I’ve been very lucky over the last two years to have lived for extended periods in India and visited many different parts. For similar reasons China has been on my wish list for years and I’m still not sure when I’ll get there.

Many years ago I also led a management team out of New Zealand and on a round the world learning journey. It changed how we approached the local market. It made us better at asking questions about what people do. We also were forced to ask ourselves why we did things in certain ways. We also ended up buying home grown costing software from Ireland. We brought stories back and told them. We put them into a local context. Reading about Sony in the Wall Street Journal today and there is a similar story.

The desire to travel and invest or expand and or import both ideas and learning are powerful reasons to reach out and explore different markets and the way things are done.

While I’ve been working more and more with Dina on research projects I’ve seen instances where the client never really gets into the market. It’s left up to the researchers. It’s also the research departments in firms (or suppliers to that firm) and often not the “product” or “innovation” teams that makes the visits. It takes a team to rethink a business and that must be cross disciplinary.

A few years ago the laundry business was rethought for the BOP, Base of the Pyramid and the case study for laundry sachets is widely known. It’s expanded to Shampoos too etc. While in India this last time I spoke with a company that was spending 100’s of thousands on product development research. They were completely lost. In fact I think the problem was they had sold a promise and an approach which was turning out to be both impossible and unlikely to deliver any product at all. They were focused on the consumer and income levels. However, they had failed to understand the systemic changes required to bring about change. Their problem was they hadn’t either found a good local guide and or found “remarkable” people that could really help them see new opportunities. In the meantime they were burning up their research budget.

I’ve found India fascinating. The need to research a company’s product opportunities and enter or improve growth in the Indian market being key motivators. I’ve also noted a growing trend. More teams and people are coming from the mothership. That’s good. It also means they are dwarfing the cost of the research with travel (most go business class) and five star hotels which aren’t cheap. Add in a week’s good living etc. and the real cost of the project may be buried in expenses. The local research cost relatively may be small.

This is both good and bad. Good that these teams are visiting and seeing things first hand. Bad, in that few companies are taking a broad enough view of the local immersion. Going half way round the world for a few groups misses out on too many other things that should be in the consideration set. The real ah ha….’s won’t come out of a single in-home visit or from listening into a focus group alone. More importantly to me is that the most innovative new products seldom come out of a group or a single insight. They come out of understanding the “friction” between different needs and environmental factors.

I’d probably argue that if you are spending on multiple global centers, I’d spend the same and expect more relatively in the markets that are exploding - china, brazil, india, etc… than in markets that your traditional success has come from.

Research costs are not the same globally, although great insight and advice always comes at a price. The simple fact is you can still do more groups, more in home, more ethnographies in emerging markets than you can in the US or Europe for the same bucks. Thus I’d argue invest the same bucks and expect to get more. Go more in-depth in these markets and then take home new questions and test them.[pic on right courtesy behavior research]

For the most part I still feel that local or domestic market research influences emerging market research. I think this is ass backwards. Use the emerging markets to influence how you think about your more traditional markets. You may be surprised by the results.

Then the cost of investing a few extra days in “learning” too is negligible. What it does require is a “guide”, access and planning. It can’t be random if it is to have impact. Recently a healthcare group came over. On day one they were “exposed” to traditional Ayurvedic Massage. Which also means “naked” (barring a loin cloth) and lots of oil being massaged into your skin and scalp. (It’s awesome and shocking the first time). That little event more than broke the ice - it created confidence and the desire to look at everything differently.

Its become common practice for us to encourage clients into this zone. Concurrently, it helps to capture lots of pictures or video. I think there are even more opportunities to share and create and there’s a need to take artifacts back home. The success in the end is the stories people tell when they go back home. Research should provide rich stories and easy ways to tell them. Linking them to learning points, remarkable people, things you have experienced first hand brings in the emotion and the passion for these opportunities.

While it is easy to talk “market research” or “customer insight” it’s all about learning and how that is transpired. We participate therefore we are! If you really want to energize your product development / management team, immerse them in a larger learning program and move the event into the emerging market, concentrate some research, confront their senses, provoke them with “radical - remarkable people” and help them create scenarios. Then evaluate back home after additional work and create the strategies on how your decisions should play out. That’s our approach at Mosoci!

I guarantee you will get a better return; on insight, on options, assessment and evaluation.

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Prince A950 — My China Phone - Think Different

05.07.08 | Stuart | Permalink | Comments Off

I’m sure many will ask me why buy the “China Phone” hadn’t I seen enough? Will you ever use one? The answer is simple. It’s a learning sample, an artifact to share, and something I can get a physical reaction and response to from others. Plus it cost me just over $100. And you can laugh as it won’t work in the US as it isn’t tri or quad band and it works on the wrong spectrum.

Then there is the fun I had haggling down the price and the very real reactions I had from top end users when I submitted it in an Indian focus group session (another post coming!).

From a product development standpoint where we are all ingrained with Nokia’s, Treos and iPhones it’s really nice to have something to play with that confounds both expectations and judgments. My “China Phone” (it will never be a Prince see the box) will never be a killer product here and probably wasn’t in China either. What it does is makes you see things differently. For me that is the point of many research projects. To think different, to see the world through a new lens. These are a few areas where my exposure to it has helped me think differently.

Think Different:

1. Sound! It’s louder than any phone I have ever had. It has four speakers. This sound perspective is much broader than just the mobile phone. It is about getting noticed in very noisy environments, it is about sharing music when hanging with friends or being able to fill a small room with sound. Here’s a contrast story (perhaps too close to home) my daughter complains her new iPod Touch doesn’t have speakers, it makes the iPhone way cooler for sharing. The Touch needs speakers. It also needs louder speakers. It really matters when sharing video.

What’s interesting is this sound perspective works into other product categories. Who’s ever heard of a phone that plays music better than a laptop, (better may be louder!). These phones beat my MacBook Pro. If you have such a phone would you buy a laptop for music or iTunes if it didn’t play it out.. or have longer battery life etc? And on this phone the speakers are understated. Others come with big round speakers and I saw 8 and 12 respectively on other phones.

Point is a simple phone of less that $100 has really re-framed what I’m seeing and begs a whole lot of new questions about sound and entertainment. The difference is the emerging Indian consumer is likely to purchase a new DVD, laptop, TV etc coming from a “mobile” perspective. By contrast we buy mobiles already having used those products which form our perspective. Mobiles for us.. tend to under deliver. They do browsing worse, play music worse, etc. In fact they are just plain hard. What I see in the China Phone on sound is they perform better (better means louder for some segments in India) than the “branded” models (Sony’s Walkman phone’s aren’t in the same league on music and yet are marketed on music).

2. Sharing and Service: The buyers of these phones don’t have a music collection. Music comes from some “music provider” who has a PC in the back-room and loads it onto the card. It’s a small fee or even free with the phone. As none of the users have ready internet access, bluetooth becomes a simple viral way to share. I still see little bluetooth sharing of files here. Once in a while, a picture. However, when the music is loud and audible… sharing and requests are more likely to come.

This phone has many smart phone features built in. Although how you transfer a contact list is not easy. I am so used to synching one Nokia with the next (it’s a real lock-in strategy) that I was pleased my iPhone could synch with my Mac. There’s no directory thinking in this China Phone. I’d have to start from scratch and that would be impossible. Sharing vcards is built in; probably another reason for the bluetooth.

3. Touchscreen: Yes it has a single touch screen. For most things it works better with the pen rather than the finger. I find the text input difficult although I can see how the touch screen really helps in China. For English letters it is just a slow input method. I’ve not really mastered it or found the setting I prefer.

I have to wonder why it has taken so long to get effective touch screens coming into mobile devices. I was using Palm’s handwriting 10 years ago on a PDA. Then abandoned. Apple’s typing touch screen on the iPhone is a huge leap forward when you see it like this. I’m convinced we’ve been too wedded to keyboards and small screens. Picture dial, buddylists are more effective than numbers. The days of the number centric phone are probably numbered. The question is what sort of keyboard is required.

China Phone - Prince A950.
Google it to find out more details. It’s basically the same size although thicker than my iPhone. The screen 320X240 is larger than my N95’s although less resolution. The aesthetics are generally good. The key pad is ok and generally I get how the keyboard layout works.

The menu system seems very Nokia-like although I don’t know what it is based on. There are no surprises in the menu. It follows what the traditional cellphone manufacturers do.

Quick / shortcuts are available for music, messaging and the phonebook. This works very effectively.

Sound is loud from the speakers. Even the 2mpx camera / video makes a very very loud and ugly click. The camera is ok but you wouldn’t buy this phone for its camera. Unlike many popular phones it doesn’t have a radio built in. However, the next step up in price has radios and TV’s built in. Sound for calling is only ok.

It has a connector cable that is both USB and charger ready. The charger is not elegant (similar to Nokia’s and is 110 to 240 volts ready. Thus you can charge from a PC or wall socket. You can also read the disk on a Windows PC. I couldn’t read this phone from the Mac. No synching appears to be available. My experimentation here was limited to putting on music and that took time. Most users of this phone would have someone put the music on for them.

The instructions are Chinese. It comes with a headset and second battery. There are two sim card slots inside. The battery is a good size, plenty of talk time here. There’s no warranty that I understand. Various people have told me that drop them a few times and it is done. Although I’ve visited a busy repair market for these phones.

This phone is not a status symbol in a brand sense; it is very good value and I can see why many budget users are moving up to them. The response here from my kid friends was generally favorable. It looks cool, the sound really stunned them and most wanted to make it work. It doesn’t look cheap. As I won’t be really testing it I can’t tell you how long it stands up to abuse. However, I suspect that more and more getting more than 12 months out of your phone without a rebuild / repair is good going. One thing missing in the US is an effective repair and rebuild market. It doesn’t exist because phones are just too cheap.

Overall, I’m impressed with this phone. We certainly lack the choice for mobile handsets in the US. I’ve seen hundreds of models for sale in the same place in Mumbai. As a purchaser you are probably better off buying a refurbished Nokia that’s a year or so old than buying this phone. However, then you would miss out on the latest statement. It’s a Ghetto Blaster Phone. I think they are likely to become a whole new genre.

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Manish Market and the New Mobile Ghetto Blasters

05.06.08 | Stuart | Permalink | Comments Off

I’ve recently purchased a “China Phone” at Manish Market in Mumbai. I wanted to just have one as an example. Manish Market is the center of the “China Phone” trade. The building is ugly on the outside and dirty on the inside. It’s packed with two or three people crowding every kiosk. It’s noisy, busy and you are constantly bumping and squeezing around people.

There are shops many of which are wholesalers and then outside many men in front of glass cases filled with phones. After the 20th store (or is that booth) you start to recognize the phones, models and price points. For the most part the phones are very “foreign” here. They aren’t “name” brands. Where one sees name brands they are either “second hand trade-ins” or “fakes”.

Talk about “China Phones” particularly in villages and in poorer “slums” led me to this market. The key differentiator that has brought me here is the sound and that is “SOUND” as in loud speakers rather than the quality of the “call sound” which is almost irrelevant. I’m on the lookout for phones with more than 4 speakers. The first one I’m shown has a second backplate that acts like a subwoofer and can contain a second battery. It makes the phone almost an inch thick. This “extra sound” device is removable. The phone felt a little clunky with it.

At the next place I am shown a handset with eight speakers built into the back cover. Despite the noise it thumps out the hindi music. I figure you could run a small party on it. The resellers are telling me that they have them with up to 12 speakers. Sound is what is selling these phones; plus I think some “service” deals for kitting them out with music. The key price point appears to be about 4000 rupees just over $100. I’m already looking at the trading up options. I’m being shown similar phones (roughly iphone size) with inbuilt TV’s. The sales guys are a little skeptical about the TV. They cannot demo it inside the building; I’m less than certain that it really works. I quickly decide I don’t need one with a TV. They talk about the operating system like it is a “Nokia” clone. It has some similarlities and then obvious differences. All of the phones I’m shown have touch screens. For the most part they work better with the included in the case “pointing pen” although certain apps (music) really only need the finger.

I focus in on one model, with touch screen, four speakers, good volume. Each stop seems to get a cheaper price. I start asking about repairs. I’m told there is a full floor above with repair outfits that can fix or tweak anything. So now I have two posts coming; 1)the phone I purchased, and 2)learnings from the repair market.

Having almost made my decision the retailers invites us inside his store. We are offered Chai. Then we get the longer story. I get an upgrade to a 2gb memory card for an extra 400 rupees. (Most buyers would skip this / and or demand that it be filled with music for free). More phones come out. He now understands that we are researchers learning about the mobile phone market. He asks about our phones and is clearly thinking if they will buy one maybe they will buy more. Out comes a Nokia N95 and N73. The N73 looks original, the N95 8GB is poorly labeled otherwise it would be hard to tell that these are fakes. Booting the N95 I find it only has 1gb of memory. I have no idea about the camera. The slide is very tight. I’m told it comes from Thailand. The N73 was really perfect and right down to the battery. Both were available for “China Phone” prices. Thus the N95 fake was approx 5000 rupees for a phone that normally retails for 25000. The N73 was available for under 4000 (all rupees 38 to dollar). However, I’d think Nokia fakes in this market are a hard sell.

The owner then proudly pulled out his iPhone when I asked how much they cost. He was very proud of it. It was in a gorgeous leather case. It’s currently one of the real “status” symbols in India. What was interesting to me was his description. Eg it was “unlocked”. “Did he have other programs installed?” No! what’s that. Unfortunately I didn’t have mine there to show him. He really had no idea how to unlock it or use ziphone etc. This is probably typical behavior in India. He may not have a PC, it may not have iTunes on it etc. Instead “upstairs in the repair center” someone will have the knowledge and “unlock” them I actually doubt he ever synchs it with a PC and if he does it’s via someone else. One of the benefits of his approach. The unlocking etc.. is someone else’s problem. For the person that can afford an iPhone having “technical support” is really “low cost” and the songs etc.. will be virtually free.

The second hand market is robust. At the top end customers are trading in their phones after 12 months. By contrast the subsidies that we have on phones in the US and the expensive cost and difficulty in repairing phones here mean people hold them longer (2+ years with contracts) and have no way to dispose via a second hand market. All the second hand phones look like new. They all have new cases (fakes or originals) and new keyboards etc. A full refurbishment can take just a few minutes. While there I replaced the battery cover on my Nokia N95 (with which all my Indian pictures were taken!) as the hooks on one side were all broken. It cost me 300 rupees (7 dollars). I’m sure I couldn’t get this part anywhere quickly in the US other than maybe on eBay and that would come from Asia.

On Service. I have a wonderful picture below “tongue in cheek” of the value of a “China Phone” guarantee. I think these retailers would all give it more than one day. I also think they would go much further than any western retailer with after sales service. First they are selling it personally to me, they are part of a family business and their reputations are at stake. These are not Circuit City retailers. The salesman reinforces this to me with his business card and number. Call me with any set up problems etc. I’m fairly sure that had I been a more typical Indian buyer he would have put the music and videos on my memory card, and gone beyond the calling me to make sure it worked etc.

As I leave this market I come away with a new appreciation for the complexities that exist here. The “all in one” phone that Nokia has been a key provider of with Radio, limited music, and a camera is now being challenged. Nokia has the brand and you can buy one just like a second hand car yet the fashion has shifted. “China Phones” with their very loud speakers are the new Ghetto Blasters. Easier to share the sound and make a statement. It may not fit in our culture and yet in India it makes perfect sense. It’s likely to be the only phone you will hear over the traffic. It won’t challenge the top end and has quite a way to go to impact high end buyers who want brands, guarantees and resale value.

Yet what’s happening here is new and it is likely to affect more than phones, it going to affect anything that plays music and is in a small portable size.

At the top end it means I want much better sound and a lot more noise out of my iPhone and top end Nokia’s. The N81 is sweet but you cannot fill a small room effectively with it. The trend also suggests the possibility for new trends. Eg streaming one channel onto a second phone so you can have even more volume and better “stereo”.

When we take a look at the “repair market” we will see there are other opportunities for product innovation.

While my trip to India was based on other project work I jumped at the chance with Dina to create some “learning journey” space in villages and in the city. I believe it is times and visits like these that are invaluable for creating context and understanding. Some may argue that you can come at market research merely like a facilitator; however I’d argue that such a lightweight approach will end up with superficial results.

The deeper impact for me is how mobile is now framing the future of music, and media in India. Let me contrast this as the closing thought. Here in the US PC’s have been framing our multimedia experiences and if not PC’s it has been DVD’s and VCRs etc on the TV. We continue to hope that it will move to the mobile. That’s not true and will never be true in the emerging world. The whole idea of a “multimedia” PC will be foreign to a first time PC buyer. With no or limited “internet” still to speak of the mobile is more likely to fuel their expectations of what they might get out of a PC. To stick with my music comparison. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a Laptop PC that had 8 built in speakers. When you trade up from palm of the hand you expect something more. More volume, more screen size, touch elements!, memory sticks that are portable etc.

While the “mobile market is really really interesting, the really challenge may be with the PC makers who need to understand the meaning of mobile to understand where and what will frame their offerings for the future.

More pictures here.

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From the Mouths of Kids - Mobile Insight

05.06.08 | Stuart | Permalink | Comments Off

I made three new friends while in the Dharavi Slum in Mumbai. At first they just tagged along and then as we stopped at various mobile kiosks, photo booths they caught on to my interest in mobile phones and what was being used.

These three kids were some of the smartest I’ve ever met on my travels. They were 12-13 years old and school was now out for summer. The boys had each worked at different jobs during the morning. They had each earned about 150 (4 dollars) rupees which goes to the family. They had older buddies that had phones and more although they themselves did not.

This is Ashok, Ajay and Yousuf. After stopping at a kiosk where another boy was using a China Phone (no sims) as a MP3 player they began telling me all about the “china phone”.

* Two sim card slots. You can be in a call and take a call from another person with some.
* From four to seventeen speakers (although none had seen one with more than 12) very loud
* Nokia sound is terrible. Nokia is not cool.
* Has touchscreen you can use your finger or a pen.
* If it falls four times it will break.
* Repairs are a problem.
* You can buy one at “Manish Market” (where I headed later)

I learned that for kids the cellphone is first a family decision. They don’t have money… it goes to the family. Or the kids may get the phone into the house, introduce it.

We then stopped by a bank. Well only sort of. It was in the street. They were handing back ATM like cards. Even if you lost the card you never lost your money as they were linked to a finger print reader. Again it was these kids that were telling me how it worked. The bank staff said nothing really throughout the exchange.

As we left them they said they were going off to the old Fort to hang out and try and get mangoes off the tree. They were still kids! Despite stories I’ve read either this part, or this time of day didn’t make this slum, their life or where I was seem dangerous. These kids seemed on track to a much better future. I really hope they get there.

Often a smile does it. These kids adopted me and were asking my name out of curiosity and to catch my attention. They didn’t expect anything. In the end a treat of some “candies” was welcomed. They were just plain friendly. They were even willing to jump in the car and take us to other parts of Mumbai.

Kids do tell you a lot about how life works and their aspirations. They are keenly aware of what’s hot and what’s not. I’m not sure these were that unusual; they were tech savvy. Had I handed them any phone I’m sure they could have operated it; the same way kids may play on a new gaming system at a friends house and then talk about it later.

If I had one real take away from this group. Nokia is in trouble at the 4000 rupee price point. The “China Phone” had the music and the cred on this street. Its cool! Perhaps not with those that have real money or everything, but for those that want to “PLAY” music together and be noticed there’s nothing that compares.

I left this group knowing I was going to “buy” a “China Phone”. A new thought beginning in my mind that Nokia, Sony and too a lesser extent Samsung LG and others have “missed” something that is changing the category and redefining use. Add in the iPhone at the top end and the “mobile handset” market is much more competitive than I had thought. The important thing is that something is happening here and it wasn’t visible to me six months or even three months ago.

For more photos

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It All Comes Out in the Wash

05.05.08 | Stuart | Permalink | Comments Off

I just returned home from India and the first chore is doing the “washing”. Throwing the clothes in the Kenmore will have some special meaning today after visiting Dhobi Ghat last week where the Dhobi’s flog the clothes on the stone.

There is an expression… “it all comes out in the wash”. Dhobi Ghat gives new meaning to this cliche.

Often described as the world largest open air laundry in practice it is hard to see quite how everything comes out so so clean. Strong bleach I’m sure. The washers are two feet in a square concrete tank and seem to enjoy beating clothes to death. It works very effectively. In fact these entrepreneurs rent the stalls from the Mumbai City for 300 rupees a month (just repeating what I was told; thus about $7.50. The fee for a clean ironed and starched business shirt is about 10 rupees. Call it 25 cents! Apparently even the Taj Hotel sends shirts here (and they will charge you US rates for the same day service). Can’t be sure of course. The labeling system was beyond me. Inked paper on a thin thread. There are actually many groups working here.

More Pictures and a Video here

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The Emerging Indian Middle Class

05.03.08 | Stuart | Permalink | Comments Off

I made my first visit to the Dharavi Slum yesterday. Often described as Asia’s largest slum it remains central to Mumbai’s development and thriving economy. I have a few stories and themes that I want to weave together.

I cannot help having the stark contrast in mind when we define the US middle class. Recently the US election candidates have been touting income spans up to $200K as middle class for tax packages and planning. I grew up with the stereotype of two cars in the suburbs and a color TV. This isn’t what middle class means in India, even though they now talk about a middle class approaching 250 million. It isn’t the middle class we know and yet this group is changing everything and on the cusp of India’s change and boom.

What’s middle class? In part, this is what I saw with my eyes and yet the other details I cannot begin to get my head around. In the Dharavi Slum you may have up to 650 families per acre. Redevelopment programs are happening and people are being displaced; although it is hard for me to see how this place would be better as a result of such developments. There continues to be local resistance to these programs.

Sakina invited me into her home. Entry is by a steel ladder. Her home is much lighter than the home below with a “clearstory” open air skylight. In total it is 225 square feet. Basically 10 feet wide and 22 feet deep. Near the entry there is a nicely tiled toilet and shower and running water. (This is not common!) She has a small kitchen with LPG stove and refrigerator. The house also has a TV (older) a landline phone for inbound calls only and an Aquarium close by the front door. Bed and bedding cover the rest of the space. I sit on the bed almost afraid to stand with the two ceiling fans on and not wanting to tower above them.

While drinking Chai members of her family come and go. Her son is in the 9th Standard (15 years old) and will get a cellphone after passing the 10th standard she says. Her daughter in law comes in and starts preparing vegetables. She squats on the floor and starts cutting them in her hands and dropping them into a stainless steel bowl. Pottery or china is a luxury with perhaps the exception of tea. You can see why everything is done sitting on the floor or perhaps sitting on the bed. They will eat sitting on the bed probably watching TV. I don’t even remember a chair or stool in the place. No table.

Her husband works in Dubai she didn’t want to go and leave family and work permits probably made it impossible. I must say the room was spotless. She had a mobile phone. No PC, or computing equipment in the house. A huge picture of Mecca. Many of her family members work outside Dharavi. For many it’s a choice to continue living here. My guide too although his “car for hire” business is run from one of the suburbs.

After having tea we dropped down into the street. Two doors down, downstairs I entered a similar sized space. 4 people were making sandals. These were for wholesale and would be branded later. They make 15 to 20 pairs a day. They had a number of clear plastic bags against the wall. It represented about a weeks work according to them.

Upstairs there was a T-Shirt manufacturer. Maybe 5 sewing machines. All were busy. There was almost no room to move in there. They would have gladly stopped for me. Oh did I say it was close to 100 degrees in all of these spaces? You can also forget about safety, wiring, etc.

Both these factories would appear to be owned by the same person or someone in the family and perhaps some relation to Sakina. Not really quite clear. They all pointed out the Redevelopment Banner. I really can’t see how they would be better as a result. I doubt they enable the factories in these new housing centers.

Around the corner there are STD (phone kiosks) everywhere. I passed an Internet cafe in this area (15 rupees per hour, no discounts etc.) There were 7 PC’s in it and the owner actually worked for another man managing clothing production for Marks & Spencer. The cafe was full.

This world remains a long way from being connected beyond the cellphone. Then I learnt more about that from a group of 13 year olds and that’s another story.

This little visit and snapshot for me was invaluable. Too few companies and visitors come and see these things. While you can commission research in India unless you have a keen eye or some way of internalizing that knowledge back home you aren’t going to come up with better products. Often it’s a few stories that you will take back home Whether Finland, Chicago, or Palo Alto you won’t begin to understand “sound” or “dust” or “recycling” in an Indian context.

Let me close with a couple of examples. PC Dust covers (not seen in Dharavi but covering electronics is common) and just the thought of a hot laptop burning one’s thighs (where are the tables!) or the inadequate speakers that laptops come with. Laptops fit the space better and it would be worth exploring the “lap” factors. Similarly, my learning from the “China Phone” (yet another story) is that all laptops have inadequate audio built in. They cannot even compete with the latest phones for “music”.

In a market that is exploding with mobile phones (10 million sold last month) low end laptops (15000 to 20000 rupees) are competing against them (full featured china phone 4000 to 6000 rupees) and new TV’s (5000 to 10000 rupees). I didn’t go into the PC markets this time. I’ve visited them in Delhi in the past and just running out of time.

I just suspect that the ALL in One that we see in mobiles (There are “China phones” available with TV’s built in plus the MP3 and FM radio) means…. no requires one to really rethink the multimedia laptop. I certainly would be if it was my job! There are a huge number of opportunities here and a dumbed down Macbook is not the answer.

For a few more pictures. Huge thanks to Dina for arranging it. I’m cross-posting this week.

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05.01.08 | Stuart | Permalink | Comments Off

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“China Phone”” Beats Nokia N95 in Boombox Test

04.29.08 | Stuart | Permalink | Comments Off

Going into the field is one of the things I really enjoy. This week I’m in India and apart from enjoying the food I’m generally on the lookout for the loud music playing phones from China. India is both noisy and an environment where the music is almost incessant. Your phone’s capability to play music is being used everywhere. I’m frequently seeing groups of young guys listening to a phone playing through its speakers. The music is most likely MP3’s although could just as easily be via the FM radio. The music is “blasted” just like “boom boxes” were once used.

This is the “China Phone” (not made by china phone just called a china phone) it’s not a Sony despite the “Walkman” brand name. You can see it has bluetooth and and antenna that can be pulled out for the radio. It also boasts a 1.3mpx camera. The young lad that had it was playing his Hindi music at a volume that far exceeded what I could play on my Nokia N95.

He was very dismissive of the Nokia sound and smirked proudly that his was better than mine. Despite the fact that he bought it for 4200 rupees (Just over $100). He said that “China Phones” come with up to six speakers. His primary reason for buying was the sound quality. He loaded the MP3’s from a computer shop.

While I didn’t get the opportunity to really inspect it I’ll be looking for these more carefully from now on. This example just illustrates how competitive and fast moving the market is here. While Nokia still has a commanding share a new phone twist (big speakers and antenna) has got kids buzzing. For this user it was a smart and cost effective choice. I cannot vouch for the after service care although my bet is the reseller he bought it from will do his best. Spare parts are likely scarce for these phones, by contast you can get any Nokia fixed almost anywhere.

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India World’s Fastest Growing Mobile Market

04.28.08 | Stuart | Permalink | Comments Off

I’m in India for a week and one of the things I’m doing is getting an update on the local mobile phone explosion. India just had their single largest month an quarter for new cellphone registrations. India is now the world’s second largest mobile market after China with 261.09 million users. In March 2008 operators here added 10.16 million users.

Unlike China where China Mobile which has 392 million subscribers the market in India is much more fragmented. Bharti Airtel the largest has 64 million subscribers and added just over 2 million per month in the first quarter of 2008

Rates here are amongst the lowest in the world. Almost each time I return I see the rates being cut. The latest cuts are to SMS pricing with offers at half a rupee commonly advertised. So less than 1 cent per SMS to counter the Indian norm of “missed calls”. Call costs are similarly down at the same sort of rate per minute. Bharti reported average caller minutes at 505 per quarter.

Growth which is not expected to slow down anytime soon is now moving to the rural areas. The auction for the 3G spectrum is likely to take place later this year. It will have to happen soon otherwise WIMAX or another technology may surprise us.

The ramifications and the changes mobile is bringing is visible everywhere. From kids in the streets of wealthier suburbs to small traders and service providers everywhere. The missed call behavior is endemic. Why pay money when you can signal for free “pick me up”, I’m ready, call me etc. It’s worth looking into “sharing” too as with limited “Internet connectivity” sharing both takes on new meaning and is in high demand.

Users are also increasingly savvy about features. Any large phone retailer or large mobile bazaar will have 100’s if not 1000’s of different models on display. It’s almost overwhelming and all the more impressive that Nokia continues to have a huge share of market. Phone are not subsidized US style. You get what you pay for and there is a ready repair market. In fact I returned with my daughters broken N73 and had a new case, new keyboard, and repairs to the sound control made. All for less than $50 using original parts. Had I gone for “unofficial” (I really couldn’t see the difference) I could have made that $15 and perhaps bargained for less.

Then for most this is outrageously expensive. New low end mobiles are approaching the 1000 rupee price barrier ($25). Prices for top end phones like the Nokia N95 are running 20000 rupees. As a comparison you can get a new laptop here for the same money. Of course that will be running pirated software.

The iPhone is available here for 24000 rupees. I also know a few are using them with Twinkle (a twitter location client) because others have updated within a few miles of me. It’s a good demo of how fast technology is disseminating. I also note the real demand for all in one phones with cameras, MP3’s (they will load them up for nothing) and radios built in.

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links for 2008-04-23

04.23.08 | Stuart | Permalink | Comments Off

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Skype Rates and SkypeToGo

04.21.08 | Stuart | Permalink | Comments Off

While lots of Skype news today is about their new rates my rummaging around in the details finally got me to take a look at SkypeToGo. SkypeToGo creates a local number for you to dial into. You can also assign up to six frequent names or use it as a way to dial PSTN numbers from your mobile or home phone. No catches. It’s not really a new or a neat trick - dial a number to get access to cheaper rates for where you want to dial.

I saw the value in a different quarter. It allows you to set up your locked down AT&T PSTN landline to have access to free calling whether US or globally. From a user perspective… the family can use my account to make all the long distance calls without needing my computer or another phone plugged in. I just have to tell them the local number to dial. They can add it to their mobile etc. No more messing with Skype Business Accounts to top up their Skype accounts and no more need to set up their accounts, or PC’s etc when they cannot be bothered. It’s just a simpler way to get them to save money. It’s also a lot cheaper than buying a worldwide plan for my wife as well as me. Now one Worldwide plan can suit the whole family.

As a method it really has nothing to do with Skype just leveraging their interconnect infrastructure. Still the SkypeToGo number is going up on our wall. Good chance that for my wife will it redefine what a Skype call means. Unfortunately that sort of dumbs it down. Further downside… it doesn’t move telephony much further ahead.

Oh the new rates… much better than the SkypePro option that proceeded it.

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links for 2008-04-19

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Fring - the All in One iPhone App

04.15.08 | Stuart | Permalink | Comments Off

I’ve been reading the hype today about the first iPhone VoIP app. Fring Beta iPhone launched today. What we read is all wow wow. What we have is a Fring beta on an unsupported platform that works and still needs work. I’m impressed and not impressed at the same time. As a proof of concept it’s pretty neat, although take care not to gloss over the details for that is what makes one of these apps really work. My intent here is to be both balanced and provide some input. It’s also been a long time since there has been much more than a “yawn” in the VoIP arena.

There’s not much different out there today. Conceptually, these integrative VoIP Chat products are now years in the making. The only ones that continues to work really well are Skype on the PC and Truphone on the mobile. For me these set the quality standard. Both have mastered audio codecs. However, if Fring gets the call quality right then look out. It could be quickly on every iPhone.

Topline Points:

  • It runs all the time in the background. I added my Twitter account. That’s real time chat too now! It stays on in the background. It’s still too basic although it updates the Twitter feed with a “from Fring” for marketing purposes. It’s more timely that Twitterriffic although the sound is annoying.
  • I made Skype calls and SkypeOut calls with varying degrees of success. Biggest problems were latency or / and breakup of the calls — stuttering was heard. The principle is fine, the quality remains unusable at this time. Blame it on “available memory” in the iPhone, latency in their bridge, their interconnect system etc. Skype was also slow to login
  • I used my Gizmo5 account to use the dialer to make SIP calls. It dialed my Truphone account, and other Gizmo accounts. I could only use it as SIP out. Again significant latency. If the latency went to zero the dialer provides me with a super way to instantly access two low cost calling plans. Their SIP interconnect is much faster. They should talk to Mobivox or High Speed Conferencing about Skype connections. I’m still not sure their solution is scalable.

  • Texting on Skype was great. In fact putting the iPhone on the desk and chatting in a two fingers mode was the fastest I have ever chatted / typed on a mobile device. I wasn’t slow! That was cool. Other mobile chat clients tried to date on the iPhone basically don’t use the Skype and Gtalk I’m on. Why bother with a chat only client when you can have everything in one? As noted chat is a commodity. Talk is about to become one too. Chat but not VoIP continued to work on the Edge network.

Where Fring Continues to make you think.

Identity:
If they have a system that effectively aggregates all your various ID’s and your phone number with SIP then the Fring ID could become almost anything you want. It could be your Facebook ID number or an OpenID. If everyone starts bridging all their communities with Fring in the longrun it is just a Fring to Fring connection. Their model is low cost because it uses SkypeOut or SIP. They don’t have a billing infrastructure to worry about. Billings are where the problems start for many of these companies.

All in One:
As Andy points out they had the gumption to put their app out there while other providers simply wait (Truphone, Jajah, Gizmo. I think this was smart. It needs testing, VoIP apps survive based on quality of the call. It’s hard to test without a global community and reaching out to a small group will make testing a whole lot easier. There’s plenty of other apps being tested like this now. I’m sure most will go through the iPhone store. What’s now created is a rush to which app will be the VoIP app of preference? It’s obviously easy enough to get SIP on the iPhone. Fring compared to Truphone and Jajah potentially has the upper hand if call quality is matched. It has “chat” built in. As the app will be “free” I doubt they are risking their “Apple” acceptablity. By contrast a Jajah or Truphone plans on charging. That may present a problem.

Business Model:
Where’s the business model? It’s not in the minutes. There’s no billing structure. Could it be in location? What happens when Fring add location information and begins providing it between Fringsters? Will the iPhone create a community that makes Fring a really desireable? Is Fring obsoleting all other chat clients with their all in one? (Probably not yet!) Will I be prepared to trust Fring with my location details? Don’t know. Still Fring could become a powerful network of distributed profiles. It could also share different profile with different people in the future. First it has to get millions of users and so far it has struggled.

These things continue to Fringing frustrate me:

Presence: Usability of the presence indicator. Fring color coding of the presence indicator is just confusing. I’ve written about this before. I just have a hard time knowing which account I’m connecting with someone one. Particularly as they may have the same name. I don’t want to communicate with someone on Gtalk when I’d normally do it on Skype or Yahoo etc. It may be unexpected, it may pop up at the wrong time etc. I actually know my “clients” and who they connect to. If you cannot tell me which channel they would like to be contacted on then at least make it easy for me to make the choice.

Communities page. After logging in if you go to edit the account it logs you out and you have to start again. There is no easy on or off. I may not want to be logged onto all my IM accounts at once. Having to put the name and password in each time is a pain. Edit should be handled like Apple handles contacts. Plus given the ease.. why not more than one gtalk account or SIP account, yahoo etc.?

Mode: When selecting a buddy I then have to make a choice. Call or Chat. For the most part i want chat. Combine the choice into the chat window by putting “call” up in the top right when available. There will be no extra clicks to make a call. Then the whole system could be more apple contact list behavior like. Deletes and arrows. Note there is no way to clean up the jabber contacts that may be anything but a clear name. Indeed why not partner with one of the Facebook Wall Apps and integrate that too. Having seen other apps integrate with the

Skype Multichats: This deserves a mention although I skirted around the problem using a “mobile” ID with limited buddies. Skype multichats and Fring are a problem. When you have a Skype account that get’s mulitchats they get broken up by individual. If you have been offline for awhile it can simply lock up your phone. The problem is Skype’s but it means you cannot use a Skype account where you are in longterm Skype multichats.

Perhaps less frustrating but still confusing to me. I added the iPhone but couldn’t use any of my old Nokia accounts; maybe they are dead who knows. There was also no email confirmation etc. Yes it is still very much beta.

Speculation:

Fring gets bought by Apple. Saves them billions relative to buying Skype which would be an overnight killer success on the iPhone. In fact Skype owned by Apple wipes out many opportunities for VoIP developments. Combine the best of both and there is a reason as powerful as itunes to buy an iphone. A good SIP client on the iPhone can beat Skype. The call quality must be there!

The counter to this. Apple likes doing things themselves. Still Skype grew the total global market for minutes. VoIP on the iPhone will do the same. Time is running out for Apple to make a decision. Even Skype should be able to launch an iPhone client (we’d hope!!!) yet they will foolishly see this as a low priority. That would be another dumb Skype mistake.

Truphone and Jajah won’t launch with jabber/aim/gtalk chat integration. That will be a mistake! AND Sightspeed will beat them all by launching a video chat client. Launch it anyways even if the camera is on the wrong side. Ever heard of the hotel mirror? New accessories are created and more….

The games are really still to begin.

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links for 2008-04-15

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The Caveman and Fire

04.02.08 | Stuart | Permalink | Comments Off

I simply loved this video. The Caveman focus Group. Via this event blog. Lots of good lessons for innovation and thinking forward

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Where’s the Flow? Where’s My Control?

04.01.08 | Stuart | Permalink | Comments Off

There’s a meme going around about where my information is. Loic wants it back. I started on this process some time ago thinking about lifestreams. Then Stowe chimes in with it’s all about flows. Both are right. We are learning to reconfigure how we capture and share expanded lifestreams in an accelerated environment. It’s also about peripheral vision. We seek detail when it’s triggered. A flow strategy is paying off in that regard, however, it’s not replacing more thoughtful conversation. See also this post on ReadWriteWeb on comments.

Concurrently, we want more fine grained control over what goes where and to whom. Somehow I’d expect Marc Cantor (in fact he sort of has on March 28th) and PeopleAggregator to weigh in on this one.  What we still need is a useful and effective identity construct that enables us to share and expire content and relationships. Then broadcasting might become lots easier, be in context (yours and mine) and by relationship.

/Message: Beyond Blogs: The Conversation Has Moved Into The Flow

Basically, conversation is moving from a very static and slow form of conversation — the comments thread on blog posts — to a more dynamic and fast form of conversation: into the flow in Twitter, Friendfeed, and others. I think this directionality may be like a law of the universe: conversation moves to where is is most social….Twitter and other similar apps are based on the web of flow: information of interest comes to us, not the other way around. And it flows through people, through relationships: it’s not a bunch of clicks on URLs, scrolling, and so on. It’s a move away from hunting and gathering and into relationship agriculture: information grows in our flow applications instead of us spending time hunting it down

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Voice to Text Future - In Your Hand

04.01.08 | Stuart | Permalink | Comments Off

I’ve been trying out a new messaging service of a type I’ve been skeptical of in the past. I’m talking Voice to Text. Now I’m going to remain skeptical for different reasons.

Andy pointed me to Mobivox’s new “Dictate Message” service or is that a command? Anyways you call Mobivox and when asked who you want to call you simply say “dictate message” then it is logical, she asks to whom and then whether SMS or email. In the end I added “Test Account” to my directory and sent off a number of test messages to my account. You can speed it up by saying “Send SMS” or “Send email”.

For once, I was stunned by the accuracy I got back. This actually works! For contrast, I last tried this with Spinvox and was disappointed by the service. In each case I spoke fast and left messages. I kept my SMS’s short. They worked well. In any case this technology is getting better and in the Mobivox case I found it very usable.

From the press release I received:

Upon calling MOBIVOX, the user says the contact’s name and tells MOBIVOX to
send him or her a text message or e-mail. The user then records a short
message, which MOBIVOX transcribes to text and delivers within minutes
to the contact’s e-mail address or mobile phone number. MOBIVOX charges
49 cents for each message sent, however, the first five messages sent are free.

And it is that last sentence that keeps me skeptical about all of these services. Mobivox is not alone in pi. There’s some challenges here.

  • First your directory must contain the contact’s email. That’s not guaranteed in Mobivox or in most of these systems. If there’s no web connection adding when you want to send it isn’t easy. Thus you have to preplan to use services like these. It may well be possible if you have uploaded your whole address book, however, call by name systems generally get slower or more cumbersome if you have three john smiths and 5 johns in total in your address book and only want to ever call one.
  • SMS is easier although if being done from the car (hands free good idea) it is from your mobile. Otherwise you would almost certainly think twice before you open the door to a 49 cent SMS. I can see a few users wanting to send an SMS from a home phone for example. That could be convenient and useful for my mother who doesn’t have a cellphone. Then that puts me right into my real objection.
  • Cost. I think these types of services are just too expensive. On the SMS front 20 cents is a cost (max they keep ratcheting it up). For email which is less likely to be “timely” delivery (it’s not in the users hand) I’d think even less; a max of 10 cents. I think there are users who would love the service and might pay for an all you can do bundle. Make it cheaper and it may be interesting, however cellphone minutes cost too. Which brings me to my last point where the future for this technology really exists.
  • Voice to text will soon be embedded in the cellphone. If I can get Dragon Dictate on my PC it can’t be too long before I get it on my iPhone. Then the costs above and the services will become irrelevant. In fact I like this scenario. And given the beauty of the iPhone if you give me voice to text dictation on it I’d bet we will finally start to adopt it.

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Sage Advice for API Providers

03.31.08 | Stuart | Permalink | Comments Off

Gabe Wachob writes simply the best advice post I’ve seen from a developer to an API Service Provider. We’ve worked together on a few projects and Gabe’s passion shines through in this one. What struck me is it holds true for any product; the customer (developer) is always right. I also believe it is easy to start off thinking an API implementation will be a simple. It’s not something that you can cut corners on or announce prematurely. The devil as always is in the details.

His post is worth a read even if you aren’t writing and developing API’s. (What’s an API many may ask?). One day all organizations may have API of some sorts. Facebook has been very successful at building their platform as a result of their API. However, the Facebook documentation (very fast moving environment) is at best “so-so” and increasingly requires real specialization by developers. Facebook’s a big enough ecosystem where that can happen. Other organizations won’t be so lucky. More importantly organizations starting out on their API initiatives should think carefully about “noise and hype” versus “collective stories”. Stories sell it, their success sells it, and that has a lot to do with how easy it is.

This summarizes Gabe’s key points. See his full post here:

  1. Use Building Bl